Even if you don't follow baseball, you know the name Aaron Judge. ESPN broadcasts have cut into other sports to show his at-bats as he chases the American League record for home runs in a single season. Some pundits even suggest this is the true home run record since everything over 61 single-season home runs occurred during the steroids era.
Either way, Judge is having himself a fantastic season. Beyond the home runs, he's also flirting with a Triple Crown, which only a dozen players have pulled off since 1920. And as MLB.com points out, Judge could even accomplish a Quadruple Triple Crown, leading at least the AL in a whopping 12 different categories.
What makes Judge's historic season even more noteworthy is that it's happening during a contract year… and that means he's about to get PAID this offseason.
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Before the 2022 season started, Aaron and the New York Yankees weren't able to negotiate a contract extension. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters the team offered Judge $17 million in arbitration and a seven-year, $213.5 million contract. Judge turned the deal down, likely looking at some of the other deals star players were getting and believing he was worth more. But he did make a counter offer! Rumors suggest that Aaron indicated to the Yankees that he would sign a 10-year, $360 million deal. But the Yanks apparently declined.
Instead, Judge received $19 million this season through arbitration.
And now, after betting on himself, he's likely looking at an enormous payday. Judge would have made a little more than $30 million per year with his last deal. Thanks to his impressive season, he should receive an offer worth more in both annual and total value.
How much bigger?
As a comp, Juan Soto is currently reportedly looking to lock down a 10-year, $450 million deal. That's an average annual contract value of $45 million. But Juan Soto is 23 years old. Judge is 30, and it's unlikely a team will take a 10-year risk at $40+ million locked-in.
Furthermore, as ESPN's Jeff Passan notes, larger sluggers tend to have deals that age poorly. Any team that signs Judge will be looking to maximize the first five years of his deal. A team could also get creative with its contract and front-load the money so Judge is making more when he's younger and presumably more productive. Yet even in that case, he'd end up with a higher salary.
As a reminder, Aaron already turned down a 7-year $213 million offer BEFORE this monster season. So with all these facts, let's assume Aaron will be looking for something in the range of 7-years and $350 million. That would equate to $50 million per year as an average annual value.
If that's what happens, Aaron will have made $370 million over the course of time (including this season's $19 million) as opposed to $230 million. In other words, if these hypothetical numbers prove accurate, by betting on himself Aaron will have earned himself an extra…
$140 million
For now, Judge is focused on helping the Yankees win a World Series. But after the postseason, it's time to focus on his financials.
